The Senate Races
For the Democrats to take over the Senate, they need a gain of six seats, and they feel those are within their reach. With about six weeks left, here are my predictions.
Connecticut
My first instinct was that after Lieberman lost the primary, Dems would flock to Lamont, the middle would splinter, and the Republicans would have a fair share who would vote for Lieberman to spite his left wing critics and their ugly attacks (rape gurney Joe, the black face incident). I have been wrong so far, evidenced by a brand new poll that puts Lieberman up by 10 points. Lamont has failed to connect with independent voters and hasn't had a good run of things lately, with a lot of stories that haven't been all that favorable hitting the presses. For him to win, he needs a huge turnout in the democratic base, especially at the upper end of the income scale, since Lieberman polls better with blue collar democrats. Voter intensity favors Lamont, but I predict Lieberman will pull this off because he has been winning the independents.
Rhode Island
This is a very blue state and this is just about the worst year to be running as a Republican in a blue state, even if you are as moderate as Lincoln Chafee is. The democrats have an adage about given a choice between a republican and a republican lite, the voters will choose the real republican. I agree with that statement at times, and I think given that democrats are in no mood to vote republican this year, they will choose the Democrat over a liberal republican. Whitehouse should win this, giving the democrats a gain in RI.
Virginia
Here is a case where the democratic adage will probably be wrong. George Allen is running against a democrat who worships Ronald Reagan and holds deep resentment towards John Kerry and his anti-war protests from Vietnam. Yet Allen has done something remarkable by opening his stupid mouth, slurring people in front of everyone and has taken a secure seat and moved it to a probable democratic pick up. From what I have read, Webb was pretty shaking in his first debate, even resorting to immigrant bashing, but shined brightly in this last debate. The polls show Allen still up, though it has had huge day to day swings. Trading accusations of who dropped the "N" word are bound to make it even more so. I would bet on Webb, but I am not very certain.
Tennessee
This one is dead even, I think Harold Ford is one of the shining future stars of the democratic party, eventhough he rubs a lot of people on the left the wrong way. His vote for the detaining bill is already making some fume. This is perhaps the most difficult pick, Tenn leans republican but Ford is the better candidate. If it weren't an off year election, I would say Corker, but midterms are usually bad news for the incumbent party. I think Ford will manage to win.
Ohio
Another state where the democratic challenger is a house member who voted for the Detainee bill. Looks like there is a trend developing. Brown is one of the more liberal guys running and I wouldn't think his brand of politics would play well in Ohio statewide , but the Republican party is in horrible shape in this state, beset by scandals and a horrible statewide economy. Brown should win this one .
Pennslyvania
Santorum has survived political death before, dodging huge deficits in poll numbers, but I think he will lose this time. The democrats have decided to give in on the abortion issue by selecting the anti-choice Bob Casey, so it undercuts Santorum's support with some voters who pick solely on abortion. Santorum had some movement in the polls earlier, but that seemed short lived, or could have been polling error. (regardless of what RFK Jr. says, polls aren't always accurate) This will tighten, but I think the lead is too big to over come.
The rest of my picks will be upcoming in the next post
Connecticut
My first instinct was that after Lieberman lost the primary, Dems would flock to Lamont, the middle would splinter, and the Republicans would have a fair share who would vote for Lieberman to spite his left wing critics and their ugly attacks (rape gurney Joe, the black face incident). I have been wrong so far, evidenced by a brand new poll that puts Lieberman up by 10 points. Lamont has failed to connect with independent voters and hasn't had a good run of things lately, with a lot of stories that haven't been all that favorable hitting the presses. For him to win, he needs a huge turnout in the democratic base, especially at the upper end of the income scale, since Lieberman polls better with blue collar democrats. Voter intensity favors Lamont, but I predict Lieberman will pull this off because he has been winning the independents.
Rhode Island
This is a very blue state and this is just about the worst year to be running as a Republican in a blue state, even if you are as moderate as Lincoln Chafee is. The democrats have an adage about given a choice between a republican and a republican lite, the voters will choose the real republican. I agree with that statement at times, and I think given that democrats are in no mood to vote republican this year, they will choose the Democrat over a liberal republican. Whitehouse should win this, giving the democrats a gain in RI.
Virginia
Here is a case where the democratic adage will probably be wrong. George Allen is running against a democrat who worships Ronald Reagan and holds deep resentment towards John Kerry and his anti-war protests from Vietnam. Yet Allen has done something remarkable by opening his stupid mouth, slurring people in front of everyone and has taken a secure seat and moved it to a probable democratic pick up. From what I have read, Webb was pretty shaking in his first debate, even resorting to immigrant bashing, but shined brightly in this last debate. The polls show Allen still up, though it has had huge day to day swings. Trading accusations of who dropped the "N" word are bound to make it even more so. I would bet on Webb, but I am not very certain.
Tennessee
This one is dead even, I think Harold Ford is one of the shining future stars of the democratic party, eventhough he rubs a lot of people on the left the wrong way. His vote for the detaining bill is already making some fume. This is perhaps the most difficult pick, Tenn leans republican but Ford is the better candidate. If it weren't an off year election, I would say Corker, but midterms are usually bad news for the incumbent party. I think Ford will manage to win.
Ohio
Another state where the democratic challenger is a house member who voted for the Detainee bill. Looks like there is a trend developing. Brown is one of the more liberal guys running and I wouldn't think his brand of politics would play well in Ohio statewide , but the Republican party is in horrible shape in this state, beset by scandals and a horrible statewide economy. Brown should win this one .
Pennslyvania
Santorum has survived political death before, dodging huge deficits in poll numbers, but I think he will lose this time. The democrats have decided to give in on the abortion issue by selecting the anti-choice Bob Casey, so it undercuts Santorum's support with some voters who pick solely on abortion. Santorum had some movement in the polls earlier, but that seemed short lived, or could have been polling error. (regardless of what RFK Jr. says, polls aren't always accurate) This will tighten, but I think the lead is too big to over come.
The rest of my picks will be upcoming in the next post
posted by Doug at 7:57 AM
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