More Senate
Continuing with my predictions
New Jersey
For another election cycle, the democrats have an incumbent senator with corruption swirling around him. Menendez has been trailing Kean lately and I think this is the one seat republicans will gain. The former governor's book coming out now probably doesn't help Menendez, putting the focus on yet another NJ dem with ethics problems. NJ is trends blue, but I think the Dems picked a dog and Kean will win.
Missouri
I haven't followed this one very closely, Missouri leans red, and the polls are close. If gas continues to decline, I think this goes to Talent. I predict a republican hold.
Montana
Conrad "Monty" Burns is under a cloud of suspicion, said a lot of stupid shit and is widely unpopular in a very conservative state. His opponent is one of these meating eating, gun shooting, plaid wearing democrats that would never play on the east coast, but is comfortable enough for westerners to vote for when they don't like their republican choice. Burns has been down for so long, I don't see him ever pulling ahead. Tester should win.
If my math is correct, that is a pick up of five democratic seats. Which would leave the Senate in a tie, assuming the other races fall as planned and that the onslaught against Lieberman doesn't get him to change.
Other races that some thought might be competative have not turned that way, such as the one in Michigan. Stabenow has run what I consider a very smart campaign. Her ads have come under attack by nutrooters who dislike her bipartisan tone or her focus on the economy. She is an incumbant in a state that has a shitty shitty economy and she has to run on something more than "Republicans won't let me do anything". And she sure as hell can't run away from the economy, so she has run on bills that she voted for that Bush signed. This is too vichy for some, though Stabenow is a smart campaigner who has won more races than her wacky critics have. She knows the electorate in Michigan is not all a bunch of republican hating , fierce parisans who want blood and revenge. They want jobs not political fireworks.
New Jersey
For another election cycle, the democrats have an incumbent senator with corruption swirling around him. Menendez has been trailing Kean lately and I think this is the one seat republicans will gain. The former governor's book coming out now probably doesn't help Menendez, putting the focus on yet another NJ dem with ethics problems. NJ is trends blue, but I think the Dems picked a dog and Kean will win.
Missouri
I haven't followed this one very closely, Missouri leans red, and the polls are close. If gas continues to decline, I think this goes to Talent. I predict a republican hold.
Montana
Conrad "Monty" Burns is under a cloud of suspicion, said a lot of stupid shit and is widely unpopular in a very conservative state. His opponent is one of these meating eating, gun shooting, plaid wearing democrats that would never play on the east coast, but is comfortable enough for westerners to vote for when they don't like their republican choice. Burns has been down for so long, I don't see him ever pulling ahead. Tester should win.
If my math is correct, that is a pick up of five democratic seats. Which would leave the Senate in a tie, assuming the other races fall as planned and that the onslaught against Lieberman doesn't get him to change.
Other races that some thought might be competative have not turned that way, such as the one in Michigan. Stabenow has run what I consider a very smart campaign. Her ads have come under attack by nutrooters who dislike her bipartisan tone or her focus on the economy. She is an incumbant in a state that has a shitty shitty economy and she has to run on something more than "Republicans won't let me do anything". And she sure as hell can't run away from the economy, so she has run on bills that she voted for that Bush signed. This is too vichy for some, though Stabenow is a smart campaigner who has won more races than her wacky critics have. She knows the electorate in Michigan is not all a bunch of republican hating , fierce parisans who want blood and revenge. They want jobs not political fireworks.
posted by Doug at 8:46 AM
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